This week
No upcoming round
Probabilities are for regulation time; a draw in finals leads to extra time.
Next-round predictions are being prepared
Predictions will appear when the next games are confirmed.
How predictions are made
Key prediction indicators
The 2022 test impact is the extra average margin error after an indicator was shuffled. Higher means it was more useful to the model, not that it directly adds points.
Scoring margin from earlier matches, updated slowly so roughly the last five to ten games describe sustained form rather than one result.
An Elo-style rating that starts each club near 1500, adjusts for opponent strength and result margin, and moves one-third toward average each season.
Recent goals plus behinds. It measures how often a team creates a scoring opportunity, regardless of whether those shots were converted.
The expected score conceded from recent opposition chances. Lower values indicate that a team is allowing fewer or lower-quality opportunities.
Forward-50 entries across prior matches, updated slowly to capture sustained territory and chance creation.
Rolling AFL player-rating output for each club's most recent lineup, with limited samples pulled toward a player's established rating.
Recent form gives the newest match 30% weight. Longer-term form gives it 12%.
Open “Why this prediction?” to see each leading signal's estimated margin influence. These are model effects, not causal claims.